Part 11: System Change: Complex Causation

The causes and consequences of change in human affairs are complex, but understanding them is easily the most important reason for studying the past. They’re the best source of insight into present-day events, and probable or possible futures. Traditional instruction usually fails to develop the student’s understanding of systemic relationships that underlie historical changes.

We’ve already touched on the complexity of change. Was the Civil War “caused” by regional differences in economic life? Yes, in part. Differing views of the rights of states to control their own destiny? Yes, in part. Differences over slavery? Yes, in part. The growth of polarization? Yes, in part. Other factors? Probably. But even if all the causes could be identified, how much weight should be attached to each would be impossible to say. Historians or textbook authors who make sweeping statements about the causes of events usually do students a disservice.

A serious consequence of the weakness in historical accounts is that policy makers often miss the mark when anticipating the results of legislation, failing to take into account “the law of unintended consequences.” The cascading effects of new initiatives can often be predicted with some accuracy, but only if policy makers have the necessary intellectual tools.

In investigating past or future change, an important question is “What else might be changing?” The Model can act as a “hypothesis generator” to bring up possible links between changes. For example, it suggests that if the population density in a region changes, changes may occur in such diverse things as religious practices, child-rearing patterns, or the level of pollution in the water supply.

Block-and-arrow system diagramming of economic changes associated with the 1920s and 1930s is an effective learning tool, particularly when contrasting data is given students for the two decades. This makes it easier to see differences between the optimistic ‘20s and the Great Depression of the ‘30s. Data for wages, prices, levels of employment, sale of goods and services, attitudes of people toward their situation and the future, and so on are available from many sources.

Another system change worth investigating by students is the American city after World War II. Growing prosperity and population led to suburban growth, with its reliance on the automobile. Decreased use of urban transit led to its decline and eventual disappearance in many cities. Lack of downtown parking, and the growth of suburban shopping centers led to the closing of downtown stores and less tax income for city governments. More affluent residents moved to the suburbs, leaving low-income people behind. These people needed city services (health, education, protection, etc.) just when the city had less money. This set up a vicious cycle (cumulative causation, again)—reduced city services, lower tax revenue, increased problems, and more people and businesses moving out of the central city.

If students learn from the study of American history how change can ripple through the fabric of society, and develop the ability to trace the causal links that tie changes together, they’ll be far better equipped to deal with a complex future.